Calgary researcher looks at what Alberta's economic diversification could look like

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As calls for economic diversification are renewed in Alberta amid work to recover from the economic toll of the COVID-19 pandemic, a Calgary researcher says traditional diversification may not be the answer to stabilizing the province’s economy.

When things get tough in Alberta, people often say the province needs to diversify by stepping away from a reliance on oil and gas toward new or better industries, said Robert Mansell, a professor emeritus of economics at the University of Calgary and research fellow at the School of Public Policy.

The shocks of low oil prices and the COVID-19 pandemic have revived the discussion, Mansell said.

However, he argued that effective diversification is more likely to include increasing the range of goods and services produced by existing sectors in the province, promoting growth of markets for exports and creating competitive substitutes for imports.

“We can’t think there’s a quick fix to changing the industrial structure. There are things we can do, in terms of diversifying markets, expanding the range of products and improving the investment climate for new industries,” Mansell said Thursday.

Mansell and his fellow researchers determined that Alberta’s rate of employment diversification is one of the best in the country, but is worse off when it comes to income diversification and value-added — or GDP — due to the size of the oil and gas industry.

Some of his suggestions for improving the stability of Alberta’s economy include reintroducing a heritage fund to save money, rebalancing federal procurement and repatriating the federal carbon tax.

“We do have a record of building strength in adversity,” said Mansell.

“We are facing more challenges than in recent decades, and I think it’s time we be more thoughtful and focused on the longer term. As opposed to looking for short-term fixes, let’s have a serious conversation about what we need to do over the next decade or more, and how we’re going to do it.”